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R number in England falls slightly to 1.1 to 1.3 despite rise in cases

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England’s R number estimate has fallen slightly to between 1.1 and 1.3 despite a rise in coronavirus cases across the UK.

Last week it was listed as between 1.2 and 1.4.

The R number is highest in the South West and the North East and Yorkshire. It is thought to be lowest in the east of England, London and the North West.

The daily growth rate of infections in England was estimated at between 3% and 5%, the same as the previous week.

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The figures, produced by the scientific advisory panel SAGE, are updated every Friday.

An R value – or reproduction number – between 1.1 and 1.3 means that, on average, every 10 people infected with COVID-19 will go on infect between 11 and 13 other people.

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Anything above 1 means the coronavirus outbreak is growing exponentially – but below 1 means the case rate is shrinking.

SAGE says these estimates represent the transmission of COVID two to three weeks ago, due to the delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.

It comes as the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures show the number of people estimated to have had COVID has risen in all four home nations.

About one in 260 people in private households in England had coronavirus in the week to 26 June – up from one in 440 in the previous week, the ONS said.

In Scotland, it was about one in 150 people, up from one in 220 in the previous week, and the highest level since the week to 6 February.

Wales’ latest estimate was one in 450 people, up from one in 830, while in Northern Ireland the ONS described the trend as “uncertain”, with a latest estimate of one in 670 people, up slightly from one in 720 in the previous week.